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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."